Pre-tourney Rankings
American Athletic
2017-18


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
5 Cincinnati 100.0%   1   30 - 4 16 - 2 30 - 4 16 - 2 +18.0      +9.0 5 +9.0 5 64.0 308 +18.1 5 +18.7 1
18 Houston 99.9%   6   26 - 7 14 - 4 26 - 7 14 - 4 +14.2      +7.1 18 +7.1 18 69.3 174 +13.5 22 +13.7 3
19 Wichita St. 100.0%   4   25 - 7 14 - 4 25 - 7 14 - 4 +14.2      +7.1 19 +7.1 19 71.4 113 +14.1 19 +14.4 2
85 SMU 0.0%   17 - 16 6 - 12 17 - 16 6 - 12 +6.4      +3.2 85 +3.2 85 61.3 337 +3.4 117 -0.8 9
87 Temple 1.2%   17 - 15 8 - 10 17 - 15 8 - 10 +6.0      +3.0 87 +3.0 87 67.4 217 +7.4 72 +4.3 7
98 Tulsa 0.0%   19 - 12 12 - 6 19 - 12 12 - 6 +5.0      +2.5 98 +2.5 98 68.0 210 +5.0 99 +8.4 4
104 Central Florida 0.0%   19 - 13 9 - 9 19 - 13 9 - 9 +4.7      +2.4 104 +2.4 104 62.4 327 +6.6 82 +5.1 6
135 Memphis 0.0%   21 - 13 10 - 8 21 - 13 10 - 8 +1.7      +0.9 135 +0.9 135 65.4 268 +5.6 90 +5.7 5
153 Connecticut 0.0%   14 - 18 7 - 11 14 - 18 7 - 11 +0.9      +0.5 153 +0.5 153 66.7 237 +3.0 124 +2.0 8
166 Tulane 0.0%   14 - 17 5 - 13 14 - 17 5 - 13 +0.3      +0.1 166 +0.1 166 71.2 117 -0.2 171 -2.9 10
259 South Florida 0.0%   10 - 22 3 - 15 10 - 22 3 - 15 -6.0      -3.0 259 -3.0 259 62.4 329 -6.6 272 -6.1 12
286 East Carolina 0.0%   10 - 20 4 - 14 10 - 20 4 - 14 -7.4      -3.7 286 -3.7 286 70.7 129 -6.7 273 -3.9 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Cincinnati 1.0 100.0
Houston 2.0 100.0
Wichita St. 2.0 100.0
SMU 9.0 100.0
Temple 7.0 100.0
Tulsa 4.0 100.0
Central Florida 6.0 100.0
Memphis 5.0 100.0
Connecticut 8.0 100.0
Tulane 10.0 100.0
South Florida 12.0 100.0
East Carolina 11.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Cincinnati 16 - 2 100.0
Houston 14 - 4 100.0
Wichita St. 14 - 4 100.0
SMU 6 - 12 100.0
Temple 8 - 10 100.0
Tulsa 12 - 6 100.0
Central Florida 9 - 9 100.0
Memphis 10 - 8 100.0
Connecticut 7 - 11 100.0
Tulane 5 - 13 100.0
South Florida 3 - 15 100.0
East Carolina 4 - 14 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Cincinnati 100.0% 100.0
Houston
Wichita St.
SMU
Temple
Tulsa
Central Florida
Memphis
Connecticut
Tulane
South Florida
East Carolina


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Cincinnati 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 1   40.9 48.7 10.1 0.3
Houston 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 6   3.2 13.4 44.2 35.7 3.4 0.0 0.1 99.9%
Wichita St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 4   0.1 0.8 20.5 41.4 31.3 5.9 0.0 0.0 100.0%
SMU 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Temple 1.2% 0.0% 1.2% 0.0 1.0 0.2 98.8 1.2%
Tulsa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Central Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Memphis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Connecticut 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Tulane 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
South Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
East Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Cincinnati 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 95.3% 71.5% 45.2% 24.8% 13.5% 6.8%
Houston 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 71.2% 37.0% 15.1% 6.3% 2.3% 0.8%
Wichita St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 78.0% 41.6% 16.0% 7.0% 2.4% 0.8%
SMU 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 1.2% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Memphis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Connecticut 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 3.0 0.1 98.7 1.2
1st Round 100.0% 3.0 0.1 99.4 0.5
2nd Round 99.6% 2.4 0.4 7.8 38.7 53.1 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 89.5% 1.5 10.5 39.1 40.2 10.2
Elite Eight 62.1% 0.8 37.9 48.6 12.8 0.7
Final Four 35.3% 0.4 64.7 32.5 2.8 0.0
Final Game 18.0% 0.2 82.0 17.7 0.2
Champion 8.4% 0.1 91.6 8.4